世博后上海人口分布新态势

New Trend of Shanghai Population Distribution After the 2010 World Expo

世博后上海经济社会发展转型、现代化城市基础设施和全面调整优化空间载体战略布局等因素将对上海人口分布产生重要影响。该文利用灰色理论模型对人口分布变动进行预测,结果表明:2010-2020年期间,上海市人口继续向郊区集聚,近郊区是人口集聚和流动的最显著区域,同时远郊区常住人口集聚的增长速度开始超过近郊区,成为人口迁移和流动的主要区域。今后一段时期内近郊区和远郊区为上海产业发展和人口布局调整提供空间,近郊区和远郊区的新城镇将成为重点建设区域,上海将加快形成城乡一体化发展的新格局。建议:加强人口发展战略和规划研究,解决土地规划、产业规划和人口规划的问题,统筹考虑土地、产业、人口之间的协调发展;实施城市人口发展功能区战略,引导人口有序流动和迁移,使上海城市人口空间布局与城市形态、区域功能和资源环境协调发展;加强流动人口均等化服务,建立健全流动人口基本公共服务均等化投入保障机制。

The transformation of economic and social development, infrastructure of modern city and completely adjusting optimizing space have important impacts on Shanghai＇ s population distribution after the World Expo. This paper forecasts population distribution changes by using the GM （ 1, 1 ） model. Based on the forecasts, it suggests that people in Shanghai continue agglomerate to the suburbs between 2010 and 2020, and at the same time, an inner suburban area is the most significant area of population concentration and flow, while the speed of population assembling in outer suburban area is higher than that in the inner suburban area. For a long time the inner suburb is going to become the main area of population concentration. Inner and outer suburbs provide space for industrial development and population layout, and then become the key construction area. Shanghai is going to speed up the formation of a new urban-rural integration development pattern of after the World Expo. Suggestions are： strengthening the study on population development strategy and planning, solveing the problem of coordinating land planning, industrial planning and population planning, considerating the coordinated development between land, industries and population; implementing urban population development strategy, guiding population flow and migration in an orderly way, impelling coordinated development of urban population space layout, urban morphology, regional function and resources environment; strengthening equal access service to the floating population, establishing and perfecting the input guarantee mechanism for the floating population to have equal access to basic public service.