浙江沿岸海平面研究和变化预测

The research and prediction of the sea level along the coast of Zhejiang Province

用统计学的方法对浙江沿岸海平面进行了研究, 采用多种海平面上升预测模式进行了计算和预测, 结果表明: 浙江沿岸的海平面存在明显的季节变化, 其变化曲线浙北、浙中沿岸为单峰型, 而浙南沿岸为双峰型, 南北地域差异较大。浙江沿岸过去30 a 间海平面平均上升速率为(2.63±0.06) m m /a。研究还表明, 未来浙江沿岸海平面还将上升, 按模式计算, 至2050年上升29 cm , 到2100 年估计上升值为60 cm 。

Using statistical method the sea level along the Zhejiang coast was studied, and the sea level rise was calculated and predicted with several models, which show a clear seasonal variation and great regional difference, variation curve is single\|peak in the north and central part, and double\|peak in the south part. The averaged rising rate of sea level was (2 63±0 06) mm/a in the past 30 years Study also shows that the sea level rise will continue in coming years. It will rise 29cm by 2050 and 60cm by 2100 according to the model estimation