“9711”号台风高潮位预报及其经验

Forecast practice for high tides by Typhoon No.9711

对在浙江省温岭登陆的“9711”号台风的风暴潮预报过程作了回顾, 总结了预报成功的经验, 探讨了对海门站预报误差较大的原因。预报实践证明, 正确的气象预报是台风暴潮预报的基础,密切关注风暴的增水变化,随时调整预报值是风暴潮预报的关键。与实测资料比较,“9711”号台风高潮位的预报是及时、准确的。

Forecast practice of the storm surge by Typhoon No.9711 landed at Wenling, Zhejiang is reviewed and the experiences and reasons for the big forecast error at Haimen Station are discussed, which shows that correct weather forecast is the base of the forecast of typhoon storm surge and changes of water piling up and the timely adjustment of forecast extreme value is the key. Compared with the measured data, the forecast of high tides from Typhoon No.9711 is accurate and in time, which is of great help for further improvement of the forecast accuracy and time efficiency of storm surge.