摘要
利用一个具有门限的非线性随机动力气候模式，对中国东部江淮流域的降水进行了预报试验。结果表明：模式能对大范围环流降水作出较为准确的形势预报。还比较了海气耦合模式与外强迫模式的预报效果，表明耦合模式的预报效果略好于外强迫模式。
A non linear stochastic dynamic model with threshold is applied to do forecast experiment for the rainfall in Changjiang Huaihe Reaches. Results show that the model can accurately forecast the precipitation caused by large scale circulation. The comparasion of forecast accuracy between air sea coupling model and external forcing model is also made,indicating that the former is a little better than the latter.
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
1999年第4期596-601,共6页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
基金
95 中国气象局青年基金!"我国气候异常事件区域形态年际变率及可预报性研究"
关键词
降水
非线性
随机动力模式
降水预测
rainfall
non linear stochastic dynamic model
threshold
forecast
