歹字型构造体系在地震预测中的应用

APPLICATION OF THE ETA-TYPE TECTONIC SERIES SUGGESTED BY LI SI-GUANG TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系和北美洲西海岸歹字型构造体系是李四光在70多年前提出的两个巨型歹字型构造体系。近年来,歹字型构造体系被应用于地震预测。应用青藏滇缅印尼歹字型构造体系预测2008年汶川8.3级巨震,应用北美洲西海岸歹字型构造体系预测2010年4月5日墨西哥7.5级大地震,均获成功。进一步研究表明,位于同一歹字型构造体系的2个或3个特大巨震的时间间隔为53～54 a,相当于三个沙罗周期的长度,歹字型构造体系的近代活动基本上是与天文因素有关的,这一联系可被应用于地震预测。

The eta-type tectonic system was suggested by academician Li Si-guan more than 70 years ago,and two great eta-type tectonic systems have been described by him： one is located in Qinhai-Xizang（Tibet）-Yunan-Burma-Indonesia（QXYBI）,and the another is Western part of North America（WNA）.Recently they have been applied to the earthquake prediction successfully.In this paper a brief introduction is concerned to the prediction of MS 8.3 Wenchuan Earthquake occurred on May 12th,2008 by Huang Xiang-ning based on the QXYBI eta-type tectonic system,and also to the prediction of MS 7.5 Mexico earthquake occurred on April 5th,2010 by author according to the WNA eta-type tectonic system.The time intervals（about 53~54 years） among super-great earthquakes occurred in the same eta-type tectonic system demonstrate clear orderliness related to 3 times of astronomical Saros Period.Thus,it is clear that the modern seismic activity of eta-type tectonic systems is stimulated by the astronomical factors,and this character is favorable for the prediction of great earthquake in future.