发扬李四光地震预报的科学思想

DEVELOPING LI SIGUANG'S SCIENTIFIC THOUGHT ON EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

李四光教授关于地震地质工作中地震预报方面的重要观点和思想主要包括:地应力变化与地震密切相关;地震活动带中也存在相对安全的地区("安全岛"理论);地震地质调查是地震预报的基础;地震是可以预测的,地应力的变化过程是地震预报的关键。他的"安全岛"理论及地震预报思想至今仍有着十分重要的理论意义和现实意义。

Some useful viewpoints on earthquake forecasting,based on Prof.Li Siguang＇s important speeches and instructions,are presented in this paper in combination with authors＇ own experience and understanding.Those can be summarized in the four aspects as follows.The existence and change of earth stress has close relation with earthquake.Relatively safe areas may occur in active earthquake zones.Earthquake survey must be the basis of earthquake forecasting.Earthquake is predictable and the change process of earth stress is the key for earthquake forecasting.Professor Li Siguang＇s theory of ＂Safe Island＂ and the thought on earthquake forecast is of great significance both theoretically and realistically,which are the precious assets he left to us and worthy of further consideration,research and implementation so far.