页岩气开发目标区优选因素的结构方程模型

Application of Structural Equation Model of Optimization Factor in Shale Gas Development Target Area

页岩气工业性开采有着自己独特的开发模式,页岩气开发目标区优选是页岩气进行工业性开采的资料准备阶段。而我国页岩气目标区优选体系还处于试验阶段,有待发展和成熟。通过分析现有的页岩气开发评价理论,借鉴国外页岩气开发评价体系的经验和合理方法,考虑中国页岩气开发所具有的特征,建立了页岩气开发目标区优选影响因素评价体系的结构方程模型,使用主成分分析法验证所选取影响指标的合理性,应用结构方程建模方法设计页岩气开发目标区综合评价影响因素关联度模型,是一种验证性多元统计分析技术,可以比较客观地、全面地对目标区优选体系的影响因素进行识别,计算出各影响因素的权重,有利于决策,并对此方法进行了实证分析。

Industrial mining of shale gas has its own unique development mode and shale gas development zone shall be determined in its initial development phase. In China, shale gas development zone selection system is still in experimental stage and it is necessary to further develop and complete the system. Analyzed are the current shale gas development evaluation theories and introduced are experience and reasonable methods for using foreign shale gas development evaluation systems for reference. Considering shale gas development characteristics in China, established is a structural equation model of shale gas development zone selection factors affecting the evaluation system, adopted is principal component analysis method to verify the rationality of the selected affecting index, applied is the structural equation modeling method to design the relational model of comprehensive evaluation effect factors for the shale gas development zone, objectively and comprehensively identify the effect factors for shale gas development zone selection and calculate objectively weights of each effect factor in order to make a correct decision.