综合风险管理:“十二五”的新命题

Comprehensive risk management-a new topic in the 12th Five-year Period

当前中国已经进入"双转"的第三阶段,即经济社会双重转型的全面深化阶段。在这一阶段,"双转"期间的利益摩擦和冲突迅速凸显。"十二五"期间,我国宏观社会经济面临金融风险、三农风险、生态风险、公共风险等"四大风险",其背后的风险因素包括强国与富民、先富与后富、虚拟经济与实体经济、经济发展与生态保护、经济建设与社会建设、市场失灵与政府失灵等"六大矛盾",这些矛盾和风险具有交叉性、综合性和动态性的特点。风险应对的基本思路是:一方面尽快建立国家层面的宏观综合风险管理体系;另一方面加快推动政治体制和行政体制改革,格外注重推动公共政策决策机制改革,着力化解六大矛盾。

China has entered the third stage of ＂dual restructuring＂, the stage for an all-round deepening of social and economic restructuring. Conflicts of interests and clashes will quickly come to the fore at this stage. In the 12th Five-year Period, China will face with ＂four major risks＂ in social and economic development, namely, financial risks, risks related to rural areas, farmers and agriculture, ecological risks and public risks. These risks arise from the risk factors of ＂six major contradictions＂, namely, a wealthy nation vs. wealthy people, getting rich first vs. getting rich later, virtual economy vs. physical economy, economic development vs. ecological protection, economic development vs. social development, market failure vs. government failure. These contradictions and risks are comprehensive and dynamic in nature and are overlapping with each other. The fundamental thinking to cope with these risks are that we should, on the one hand, establish a comprehensive risk management system on the national plane, and on the other hand, accelerate reform on the political regime and administrative regime, in particularly the reform on the public policy decision-making mechanism, to dissolve the six major contradictions.