基于可能-概率测度转换的危险品运输风险分析

Risk Analysis for Hazardous Materials Transportation Based on Probability-possibility Transformation

为解决不确定环境下的风险分析问题,针对危险货物运输中风险参数具有不确定性、随机性和模糊性的特点,建立基于概率测度-可能性测度转换原则和模糊逻辑的危险货物运输风险分析方法。首先对具有模糊性的参数直接建立模糊数,对具有随机性的参数建立随机数;接着依据概率测度向可能性测度转换的最优原则,将随机数转换为模糊数;然后根据模糊运算法则进行风险计算和分析。最后通过一个算例验证了模型和算法的有效性。结果表明,提出的方法能处理随机和模糊环境下的风险分析问题,能为风险分析尽可能多地保留不确定性信息,尽可能少地丢失有用信息。

In order to perform risk analysis for hazardous materials transportation,in view of the fact that the risk parameters were uncertain,some parameters were fuzzy and some parameters were stochastic,a risk analysis procedure and method for hazardous materials transportation was developed based on the fuzzy logic and probability-possibility transformation principle.Firstly,the fuzzy numbers and random numbers for risk parameters were established;Secondly,according to the probability-possibility transformation principle,the random numbers were transformed to fuzzy numbers;Thirdly,the transportation risk calculation and analysis were performed using the algorithm of fuzzy logic.Lastly,the application of the model and its algorithm were illustrated with a numerical example.The results show that the method can preserve as much information as possible for risk analysis and can guarantee the objectivity and accuracy of risk analysis.