基于Logistic曲线的城市应急能力评价研究

Research on Urban Emergency Capability Evaluation Based on Logistic Curve

为科学、合理的对城市应急能力发展现状与发展过程进行评价,运用Logistic曲线模拟替代传统线性曲线分析城市应急能力发展过程,并运用该曲线对传统的线性隶属函数进行改进,提出了基于Logistic曲线的城市应急能力发展现状评价模型和城市应急能力可持续发展过程。运用该模型对广州市火灾应急能力进行实证分析,分析结果显示,2008年广州市火灾应急能力的成熟期隶属指数(0.302 3)最大,说明2008年,广州市火灾应急能力处于成熟阶段,但不够稳定,需要不断提升其应急能力;2001—2008年间,成熟期应急能力隶属指数的变化过程是按曲线过程发展的,说明城市应急能力发展过程是按曲线过程发展的。

In order to scientifically and reasonably evaluate urban emergency capability development situation and development process,Logistic curve was used to simulate urban emergency capability development process instead of traditional linear curve.Based on the improvement of the traditional linear membership function by this curve,a Logistic-curve-based model for the current situation evaluation of urban emergency capability development and a sustainable development process for urban emergency capability were presented.The application of this model in the empirical analysis of Guangzhou＇s fire emergency capacity shows that the membership indicator of Guangzhou＇s fire emergency capacity in 2008 to mature stage is maximum（0.302 3）,which indicates that Guangzhou＇s fire emergency capacity in 2008 is in mature stage with being not stable and needing continual improvement.The varying process of membership indicator to mature stage from 2001 to 2008 is a curve,which explains that the development process of city emergency capacity abides by a curve process.