基于协整理论的内河航运发展与区域经济增长关系的实证分析

Empirical analysis of relationship between inland water transport and regional economic growth based on co-integration

为了揭示内河航运发展与区域经济增长之间的关系以及二者的作用机制,以重庆市"内河运输-区域经济"复合系统1985—2009年的数据为研究对象,建立了基于协整理论的自回归分布滞后模型和VAR模型,并进行了脉冲响应分析。研究结果表明,内河航运发展与区域经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系,内河航运的发展对区域经济增长具有较强的拉动作用,并且这种作用力度长期明显强于短期。区域经济的增长不能自发带动内河航运的发展,甚至对内河航运发展具有抑制效应。最后根据实证分析结论,给出了相应的政策建议。

In order to reveal the relationship and mechanisms of inland water transport and the regional economic growth,we established the autoregressive distributed lag model and VAR model,and conducted the impulse response analysis according to the Chongqing ＂inland water transport-regional economic＂ composite system data during 1985—2009.The results show that there is only a one-way causal relationship between inland water transport development and regional economic growth;The development of inland water transport has a strong stimulating effect to the regional economic growth;The development of inland water transport has a strong regional economic growth stimulating effect,which will be more significant in the long term;The regional economic growth cannot spontaneously promote or even inhibit the development of inland water transport.