基于蒙特卡罗法的工程项目造价风险分析

Analysis of the Risks of Engineering Cost Based on the Monte Carlo Method

工程造价活动具有不确定性,这种不确定性会增加项目管理中的风险,项目管理者需要对造价活动中的这些风险进行分析,使得项目管理活动更加科学。此文利用蒙特卡罗法对工程项目造价中不确定因素进行模拟,根据不确定因素的概率分布设定随机抽样函数,将随机抽样样本代入造价计算公式获得造价模拟结果,对模拟结果进行统计得出造价风险值,并对该值进行分析,为项目造价风险管理提供判断数据。

Engineering cost involves uncertainties which increase the risks in project management,and thus project managers need to analyze those risks to make the project management more scientific.This paper applies the Monte Carlo method to simulate the uncertainties in the engineering projects.First,a randomly sampling function is set according to the probability distribution of the uncertainties.Second,the sample is put into the formula for engineering cost to obtain simulated results.Third,the risk value of the engineering cost is obtained by conducting statistics of the simulated results.Fourth,the risk value is analyzed to provide evidence for the risk management of the engineering cost.