区域经济及其行业发展资金需求量的预测方法研究——以福建省旅游业发展所需资金需求预测为例

A Study on Predicting Fund Demand of the Development of the Regional Economy and Its Industries——A case on predicting the fund demand of developing the tourism from 2011 to 2020 in Fujian province

通过对Solow模型的隐含条件(劳动和资本可以相互替代)的拓展分析,认为:①区域经济体的总产出和资本投入量存在确然关系;②区域经济体内各个行业的投入产出系数相等才能确保经济增长路径最优。因此,为了计算区域经济体及其所在行业发展的资金需求量,只需估计相应年份的投入产出系数的值便可直接计算达经济发展目标的资金需求量。最后,文章以福建省2011-2020年的旅游业发展的资金需求量做了示范说明。

Further analyzing the implied condition in Solow model, it is concluded, first, there is a definite relationship between the total output of the regional economy and its total capital investment, and secondly, there is an optimal economic growth path only when the input output eoefficients in all industries are equal. So, by estimating the corresponding input-output coefficients each year, the amount of fund demand to reach the goals of economic development could be obtained. This paper works on the case of tourism development from 2011 to 2020 in Fujian Province to illustrate the above points.