基于自回归模型的新能源汽车保有量预测

The Prediction of Possession for Alternative Fuel Automobile Based on Autoregressive Model

在当今低碳经济背景下,发展新能源汽车成为节能减排的重要途径。本文结合新能源技术的发展情况、国家政策导向以及运用一阶自回归模型计算出的2010-2015年的汽车保有量,预测了未来5年新能源汽车的保有量。这种增加了技术和政策因素做出的预测分析比以往单纯用模型公式计算会更加有可靠性。

Under Low-carbon economy baekground, the development of alternative fuel automobile becomes the important way of energy saving and emission reduction. Based on introducing the new energy technologies development conditions, national policy direction, and 2010--2015 auto possession via first-order autoregressive model, this paper has calculated alternative fuel automobile possession in the next 5 years. This paper involved technology and policy factors make the forecast more accurate than other calculating with formula only.