基于系统动力学的城市群交通规划方法研究

Urban Agglomeration Transport Planning Based on System Dynamics

由于我国综合交通管理体制改革尚未完全到位,城市群一级又缺少明确的管辖主体,不同交通运输主管部门制定的城市群交通规划之间无法衔接、配套,并且城市群交通的发展还日益面临资源、环境约束等新的问题,迫切需要城市群交通规划在理念、方法和技术上有新的突破.本文应用系统动力学的思想方法,从投资效应、运行效益和布局导向效应三方面分析了交通系统与区域经济发展之间的反馈关系;构建了交通系统与城市群发展的因果关系流程图;界定和描述了主要的子系统及函数关系;探讨了该方法在资源、环境约束下,制定城市群综合交通规划中发挥的作用.

Due to incompletion of comprehensive transport management system reform,and lack of single administration entity in urban agglomeration,different modes of transport planning established by separate government sectors in charge are hard to be suited and connected.Moreover,comprehensive transport development in urban agglomeration is increasingly restricted by resources and environments.The breakthroughs of conception,methodology,and technology of comprehensive transport planning in urban agglomeration are urgently needed.This paper applies thoughts and methods of system dynamics into comprehensive transport planning in urban agglomeration.It analyzes the feedback relations between transport and regional economy from three aspects,namely,investment effect,operation effective,and placement guidance effect.It also establishes causal relationship flow chart between transport system and urban agglomeration development and defines and describes major subsystems and functions.The roles of this method are discussed for creating comprehensive transport planning in urban agglomeration restricted by resources and environments.