基于运营可靠性的两停靠位公交站点出站排队时间计算模型

Queuing Time Calculation Model for Bus Stop with Two Berths Based on Operation Reliability

公交站点作为常规公交的重要基础设施,其运行特性和效率的研究一直是许多交通工程人员关注的问题.通过对公交车辆在站点内的微观行为分析,提出了出站排队时间的概念和形成过程.在公交车辆运行特征的基础上,建立了基于运营可靠性的两停靠位公交站点出站排队时间模型,分别在不同到达和停靠随机程度下构建出站排队时间期望值以及出站排队出现概率的计算模型.从算例的结果分析可知,随着停靠时间的随机程度的增加,公交车辆出站排队时间的期望值以及出站排队现象出现的概率都随着增加,特别是在爱尔朗分布的k取值小于10的范围内,这种影响最为显著.

As the basic infrastruction of bus transit,bus stops have got a lot of attention from the traffic engineers for efficiency improvement.This paper puts forward the definition and formation process of out-of-berth queuing time（OOBQT） based on bus microscopic behavior at bus stop.Then,according to the bus operation reliability,OOBQT calculation model for bus stop with two berths is constructed.The expectation and possibility of OOBQT are proposed based on the bus arriving and dwelling distribution.Through numerical computation examples,it is proved that with the increase of the random degree of dwelling time,the expectation and possibility of OOBQT increase,especially when the Erlang distribution shape parameter k below 10.