时序自回归差分方程模型在传染病预测中的应用

Application of Time Sequence Autoregression Difference Equation Model in Infectious Disease Prediction

本文通过分析传染病的特性,建立了时序自回归差分方程模型,对SARS传染病的流行规律进行了进一步研究,并讨论了平衡点及其稳定性.仿真结果表明,使用自回归差分方程模型预测传染病的流行趋势,具有精度高、简单易行的特点.

Through analyzing the characteristics of infectious diseases, time sequence autoregression difference equation model is established, lhrther research is conducted on the prevalence rule of such infectious disease as SARS, and balance point and its reliability are discussed. The emulation result shows that the prediction of prevalence trend of infectious disease through autoregression difference equation model has the characteristics of high accuracy and simplicity.