地震前水氡短临异常判别指标及预报三要素的方法探讨

ON THE INDICES DISTINGUISHING SHORT-IMMINENT ANOMALIES OF WATER-RADON BEFORE A EARTHQUAKE AND THE METHOD PREDICTING ITS TIME,LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE

本文分析了中国大陆(重点是南北地震带北段)水氧异常变化,深入研究了有震与无震异常的时空分布特征、异常总频次、起始异常时间差等,发现有震异常往往呈现“同步性”或“群体性”特征,而大部分“零散性”异常则属于非地震异常。根据上述研究,本文还提出了利用水氡异常预报地震的发震时间、地点和震级的初步方法。

In this paper, the anomalous changes in radon content recorded by nine monitoring sites before ten moderately strong earthquakes occurred along the northern segment of NS seismic zone are analyzed. Further studying the temporal and spatial distribution characters of seismic and aseismic anomalies in the area, total anomaly frequency, time difference between the beginning and ending of anomalies etc., it is found that, in general, the seismic anomalies are characterized by 'synchronism' or 'cluster' and that the most of 'scattered' anomalies are aseismic. Based on the above-mentioned results, the method predicting time, location and magnitude of future shocks using radon anomaly is also proposed.