贸易基础新释与经济一体化的理论分析

The New Interpretation of Trade Basis and the Theoretical Analysis of Economic Integration

构建一个两个同质国家交往的重复互动博弈模型,通过追求国家福利最大化的政府和追逐市场利润最大化的生产者之间彼此博弈互动,说明两个国家短期内在一定关税下会出现能增进两国福利的国际贸易,进而重新诠释了国际贸易的基础,指出市场逐利的投机行为是国际间贸易的本质基础。从长时段看,在一定条件下,即两国人民和政府预期未来两国的交往会稳定进行的条件下,两个国家会形成一个互相共同协调经济政策的经济体,即经济一体化。分析结果还说明不存在不需要政府管理的长期稳定的自由竞争市场。

A repeated interaction game model of two homogeneous countries is built in the paper,and by analyzing the game interaction between the government, pursuing national welfare maximization, and the producer, pursuing profit maximization, the authors prove that within a short period, international trade between the two countries will occur under certain tariff and promote their welfare. This further reinterprets the basis of international trade, and the authors point out that profit -seeking speculation is the basis of international trade. From the long run, under the certain condition that the people and the governments of the two countries expect that the two countries＇ future interaction will be stable, the two countries will form a economy which will jointly coordinate economic policies, namely, economic integration. The results of the analysis also show that a long - term stable free competition market without the management of government does not exist.