影响人民币汇率变动长期因素的实证分析

Influence of RMB Exchange Rate Changes of Empirical Analysis of Secular Factors

随着中国经济的高速增长以及贸易顺差的逐年扩大,加之金融危机的余波尚未结束,人民币汇率问题成为世界关注的焦点。首先阐述了影响人民币汇率变动的长期因素,包括中国经济发展状况、国际收支及通货膨胀率,并分析了它们与汇率变动的关系。然后运用多元回归方法对这些影响因素与人民币汇率的相关性加以验证分析。

With China＇s rapid economic growth and trade surplus has expanded each year,coupled with the aftermath of the financial crisis is not over,the RMB exchange rate issue has become the focus of world attention.This paper describes the effects of long-term RMB exchange rate factors,including China＇s economic development,international balance of payments and inflation rates,and analyzes their relationship with the exchange rate changes.Then used multiple regression on these factors and the relevance of the RMB exchange rate to verify the analysis.