摘要
F·费萨拉基博士从区分不同国家入手,分析了造成中东北非局势动荡的内外部原因,并指出,即使卡扎菲下台,利比亚部落之间的矛盾还会长期存在,利比亚多年之内不会和平,石油生产也很难恢复到战前水平。就中东产油国而言,沙特阿拉伯在世界石油市场的地位正在增强;伊拉克受基础设施和石油出口设施的限制,难以达到理论上1200万桶/日的石油生产能力;伊朗将继续受到美欧的严厉制裁,不会成为大赢家。从石油需求来看,目前世界石油需求是8700万桶/日,封顶数量预计为1亿桶/日。2015年以后,石油需求增长主要由欧佩克特别是沙特阿拉伯增产来满足。过旺的需求将受到125190美元/桶高油价的抑制,中国会面临调整需求增长的压力。随着时间的推进,中东产油国与亚洲石油进口国的经济关联性会更加紧密,但是美国依然会在中东保持强大的政治和军事影响力。
Dr F. Fesharaki distinguishes between different countries in analyzing the internal causes of instability in the Middle East and North Africa within the context of external causes. He observes that even were Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi to step down, the conflicts between Libyan tribes will exist for some time to come, Libya is not within years of peace, and it will be difficult to restore oil production to prewar levels. Relative to other Middle East oil producers, Saudi Arabia's position in the world oil market is growing; Iraqi infrastructure and oil export capacity are subject to limitations that make Iraq hard pressed to reach its theoretical 12 million barrels/ day of oil production capacity; and Iran will continue to suffer from severe sanctions by the U.S. and Europe, and thus not be a big winner. With world oil demand now at 87 million barrels/day, cap that number in the future at an estimated 100 million barrels/day. After 2015 oil demand growth will be met mainly by OPEC, especially by Saudi Arabia’s increased production. Excessive demand will keep oil in the 120-190 U.S. dollar/barrel range which will inhibit demand growth which will face pressure in China to adjust. As time progresses, the Middle East oil producing and Asian oil importing countries’ economic relationship will grow closer, but the U.S. will still maintain strong political and military influence in the Middle East.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2011年第5期9-14,111,共6页
International Petroleum Economics
