亚太地区炼油工业发展现状与前景展望——兼论亚太地区炼油工业对石油市场及油品贸易的影响

Refining outlook in the Asia-Pacific region: Implications for regional oil markets and the petroleum product trade

2009年增幅达到历史高点后,亚太地区炼油能力增速明显放缓。预计在2015-2017年间,亚太和中东地区会迎来新一轮炼油能力扩建浪潮。亚太地区不仅原油蒸馏能力激增,同时二次深加工转换能力也在大幅提高,并较原油蒸馏能力增速更快。亚太地区的运输燃料,包括汽油、柴油和航煤将面临过剩。迄今为止,中国和印度大部分的炼油规划项目并没有被取消,但日本、中国等部分国家与地区有关闭炼厂的计划。如果出口型炼厂还能继续拓展市场,预计未来亚太炼厂利用率将会回升。预计亚太地区在未来仍将是液化石油气(LPG)、石脑油、燃料油、沥青、石油焦等石化产品的净进口地区,同时成为包括汽油、柴油、煤油在内的交通燃料的净出口地区。该地区交通燃料出口国家的炼油商不仅要争夺本土的市场份额,还要争夺国际市场的份额。中国、日本、印度、马来西亚、越南、澳大利亚、菲律宾的油品贸易未来会发生一些变化。

After reaching historically high net refining capacity addition in 2009, Asian refining capacity expansion slowed down significantly. Another wave of refining capacity addition is expected to come online in 2015-2017 from the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East. Asia- Pacific has not only witnessed a dramatic increase in distillation capacity, but also seen large increases in conversion capacity. In fact, upgrading capabilities are expected to grow even more rapidly than primary capacities. Asia-Pacific is heading towards a larger surplus in transportation fuels, including gasoline, kero/jet, and diesel. A very large proportion of the planned refining projects in China and India have not been cancelled. However, Japan, China, and a few other countries have plans to close some refineries. The region’s refining utilization rate may rise if export refineries will continue pushing their products to newer markets. We project that the Asia-Pacific region continue to be a net importer of LPG, naphtha, and fuel oil and a net exporter of transportation fuels, including gasoline, kero/jet, and diesel. Refineries in countries that export transportation fuels will have to compete to capture not only a share of their respective domestic markets, but also a share of the international market. Product trade in China, Japan, India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Australia, and the Philippines will continue to evolve.