中国服务业结构变迁是否合理——基于产业关联视角的实证分析

Are the Structural Changes in Services Sector Rational?——An Empirical Study from the Perspective of Industrial Linkages

近年来服务行业的感应力系数和影响力系数在总体上呈现下降的趋势。服务各行业就业和产值结构对中国农业和服务业自身的全要素生产率提高没有表现出应有的正引致弹性系数。虽然从总体上对制造业的全要素生产率提高表现出了比较显著的正引致弹性系数,但引致弹性系数都相当小,说明了中国服务业结构变迁还不具有合理性。因此,政府产业管理部门应把服务行业是否促进了其他产业以及服务业自身的全要素生率提高作为评判服务业结构是否合理的主要标准。

In recent years, the reaction coefficient and influence coefficient of China＇ s services sector have shown an overall declining trend. The employment and output structure of services sector does not demonstrate the expected positive induced elasticity to the total factor productivity （TFP） of agriculture and services sector itself. A positive induced elasticity to the TFP of manufacturing is significant yet low. This indicates structural changes in services sector are still irrational. Therefore, the authorities should regard whether services sector has helped improve the TFP of other industries and itself as the main criterion for judging the rationality of the structure of services sector.