人口惯性的测量方法

The Measuring Methods of Population Momentum

本文详细介绍了国际上较为成熟、可操作的人口惯性测量方法,包括人口内在自然增长率、人口惯性因子计算法、人口模拟预测法、以及年龄别人口惯性因子计算法;并分析了这些方法的优势和不足。同时,首次提出利用模型生命表和模型稳定人口,探索在人口数据缺乏的情况下,估算人口惯性大小,为从不同层面估计、量化人口惯性提供有效、实用的工具。

The paper detailedly introduces the mature and workable measuring methods of population momentum in the international academic circles, ineluding the methods to measure the intrinsic rate of natural growth, the population momentum factors, the simulated population forecasts and the age-specific population momentum factors, and point out these methods＇ advantages and disadvantages. Meanwhile, the model life table and model stable population are firstly used to estimate population momentum in the lack of sufficient data to supply an effective and practical tool to estimate the population momentum for different levels.