美国国债评级展望下调的根源及前景——基于标普下调美国国债评级展望的分析

The causes and prospects for the US sovereign debt outlook downgration—An analysis based on S&P rating outcomes

标普下调美国国债评级展望的事件引发市场剧烈波动,美国国债问题备受关注。文章分析指出,美国财经纪律松散、回避长期性经济结构调整而依赖短期性刺激救助政策等因素,是构成本次国债评级展望下调的深层原因,而未来由美国"婴儿潮"引发的"银发海啸"及社会医疗保险支出的上升将加剧财政收支矛盾。总体来看,美国国债评级短期内大幅下调的可能性不大,但长期风险不容忽视。

The SP downgration of the US sovereign debt outlook has caused huge market fluctuations,and the U.S.sovereign debt issue has drawn a great deal of attention.The analysis conducted for this article shows that factors such as lax financial discipline in the US,the avoidance of long-term economic structure adjustments and dependence on short-term stimulus policies are the root causes of the U.S. debt outlook downgration.In future,the＂silver tsunami＂caused by the＂baby boom＂and increased social health insurance costs will widen the gap between fiscal revenue and expenditure.From an overall perspective,long-term risks should not be ignored despite the slim chance of a drastic U.S.sovereign debt downgration in the short run.