我国农村消费品市场实证分析及预测

CHINA′S RURAL MARKET FORECAST AND ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER GOODS

从农村及农民家庭的实际情况出发,运用计量经济学及消费经济学的原理,分别选取了食品、居住、家庭设备及服务、交通与运输、娱乐用品及服务、医疗保健及其他商品及服务等8个主要影响因子,对未来两年农村居民的人均消费要求和消费结构进行了预测,认为在未来两年内,我国农村市场扩张的潜力巨大,能为我国工商业的发展提供广阔的空间,使资源得到有效配置,从而促进整个经济又好又快发展.

This article is based on the real situation of countryside and farmer families and utilizes econometrics and consumer economics＇ principle,it process the average consumption demand of rural residents and consumption construction in countryside in two years through analysis eight main influential factors which contain food, housing, family equipment, service, transportation, entertainment supplies and service, medical care, and other goods and service and so on. The article shows that in two years, the talent of market expansion of countryside is huge and it can make a broad room for our country＇s business development, enable the resources to obtain the effective use, then could promote the development of whole economy in a quick and good way.