公路交通可持续发展动态评估实证研究

Study on Dynamic Evaluation Model and Its Application of Highway Transportation Sustainable Development

为动态掌握公路交通发展与交通资源、生态环境、经济效益及社会效益的关系,构建了公路交通可持续发展动态分析与评估模型.根据公路交通可持续发展评估的内容和特点,从交通资源、生态环境、经济效益和社会效益4个方面建立了可持续发展评估指标体系.在分析公路交通发展状态向量结构的基础上,运用灰色系统理论建立了公路交通可持续发展动态评估模型,进而以甘肃省公路交通为例进行了实证研究.实例研究表明:该评估方法可行.模型计算的结果有助于制定符合公路交通可持续发展的改善措施与管理办法.

In order to dynamically master the relation between the highway transportation and the transportation resource, ecological environment, economic benefits and social benefits, the dynamic analysis and evaluation model of highway transportation sustainable development is put forward. According to the contents and characteristics of highway transportation sustainable development, the evaluation index system is constructed from four aspects of transportation resource,ecological environment,economic benefits and social benefits. On the basis of analyzing the state vector structure of highway transportation development, the dynamic evaluation model of the highway transportation sustainable development is set up with the grey system theory. Then the evaluation method is applied to evaluating the highway transportation of Gansu Province,and the results indicate that the evaluation method is feasible. The calculating results of the model can help people establish the measures and management methods which accord with the highway transportation sustainable development.