对外开放度与入境旅游发展关系研究——以山东/陕西两省为例

Study on the Relation between Degree of Openness and Development of Inbound Tourism——A Case Study of Shandong and Shaanxi Provinces

着眼于对时间序列的分析,以山东和陕西为例,研究了经济开放度对中国入境旅游业发展的影响,结果发现:从1991年至2008年,随着对外开放度的增大,入境旅游获得了同步增长。入境客流量占有率、入境旅游收入占有率、对外开放度3个重要指标时间序列的相关性均在0.80左右,并在几个转折点上呈现良好的对应关系。通过对山东、陕西的对比分析发现,山东省对外开放度与入境旅游市场占有率呈同步上升,而陕西省对外开放度与入境旅游市场占有率呈同步下降,说明对外开放度的差异是导致入境旅游发展水平的一个重要因素。

Taking the analyses of time series as the basis and Shandong and Shaanxi as examples,the paper discusses the influence of degree of openness on China＇s development of inbound tourism with a conclusion that the enlargement of openness facilitates the increase of inbound tourism synchronously.The comparative analysis of inbound tourism in Shandong and Shaanxi shows that the difference of openness degree is an important factor in the development of inbound tourism.