摘要
This paper presents an analytical foundation for probability-based formats for seismic design and assessment of structures. These formats are designed to be suitable for code and guideline implementation. The framework rests on non-linear, static seismic analysis. The formats can be used to ensure that the structural seismic design can be expected to satisfy specified probabilistic performance objectives, and perhaps （more novel） that it does so with a desired, guaranteed degree of confidence. Performance objectives are presumed to be expressed as the annual probability of exceeding a structural performance level. Structural performance levels are in turn defined as specified structural parameters （e.g., ductility, strength, maximum drift ratio, etc.） reaching a structural limit state （e.g. onset of yield, collapse, etc.）. The degree of confidence in meeting the specified performance objective may be quantified through the upper confidence bound on the （uncertain） probability. In order to make such statements, aleatory （random） uncertainty and epistemic （knowledge limited） uncertainty must be distinguished. The single seismic design foundation can be formatted into the alternative conventional design methods such as LRFD design and fragility-hazard design. Versions of the new developments reported here are already in place in recently completed seismic guidelines.
