摘要
运用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型和回归预测法预测湖南省绥宁县2010至2020的耕地面积,并结合绥宁县耕地后备资源潜力,探讨耕地占补数量平衡关系;结合绥宁县农用地分等定级中间成果,采用标准粮产量—土地利用等指数回归分析法划分绥宁县耕地质量等别,得到各等别折算系数,评价绥宁县耕地占补质量平衡关系;结合数量与质量的平衡,得出绥宁县到2020年,在城镇化建设中可实现耕地占补数量质量双向平衡的结论。
Using GM（1,1） grey forecasting model and regression forecasting method to predict the area of cultivated land in Suining County of Hunan Province from 2010 to 2020.Then,combining with the potential of reserved land resources in Suining County,the requisition-compensation balance of quantity of cultivated land was discussed;combining with the result of classifying and grading cultivated land in Suining County,using indexes of standard food production,land use and so on and regression analysis to divide the classes of cultivated land quality in Suining County,and then the conversion coefficient of each class was got to evaluate the requisition-compensation balance of quality of cultivated land in Suining County;combining with the balance of quantity and quality,a conclusion that Suining County can realize the bidirectional requisition-compensation balance of quantity and quality of cultivated land in 2020 was obtained.
出处
《湖南农业科学》
2011年第6期86-89,共4页
Hunan Agricultural Sciences
关键词
耕地
占补平衡
GM(1
1)模型
回归分析
利用等指数
绥宁县
cultivated land
requisition-compensation balance
GM（1
1） model
regression analysis
utilization index
Suining County
