真是过剩流动性引发了中国的通货膨胀吗

Is It Really the Excess Liquidity That Causes Chinese Inflation?

2010年7月以来,中国的CPI屡创新高,面临越来越大的通胀压力。社会普遍认为,此次通胀的形成归结于2009年以来中国人民银行流动性的过度投放,故而为控制通胀需紧缩流动性的呼声很高。本文基于1998年1月到2011年4月的月度同比数据,利用SVAR模型分析了中国通货膨胀增长率、国际大宗商品价格和过剩流动性之间的关系。结果表明,流动性过剩对中国通货膨胀增长的冲击非常小,而国际大宗商品价格变动对通胀增长有更大、更持续的正向冲击。国际大宗商品价格变动对中国通胀增长率的影响,远远大于过剩流动性对通胀的影响。

Since July 2010,China is facing increasing inflationary pressures.Community generally believes that the inflation dues to the liquidity of the People＇s Bank of China＇s over-running from 2009,Therefore the calls for tightening of liquidity is very high.Based on January 1998 to March 2011 monthly data,this paper analyzed the relationship between the Chinese inflation rate,international commodity prices and excess liquidity through SVAR model.The results show that,Excess liquidity has a very small impact on inflation,International commodity price changes on the impact of China＇s inflation rate are far greater than the excess liquidity on inflation.