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中国经济预测者的真伪羊群行为辨析 被引量:2

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摘要 羊群行为包括真羊群行为和伪羊群行为。真羊群行为是指经济个体的决策受到他人决策或行为的影响从而不去获取信息或者忽略自己的私人信息直接跟从他人,而伪羊群行为则表现为经济个体依据相同的信息做出了类似的决策。在经济预测中,真羊群行为由于预测者忽略了自己的私人信息从而往往会引起显著的预测偏误,而伪羊群行为由于预测者依据自己的私人信息独立地做出预测从而做出准确预测的可能性较大。本文从宏观经济预测和股票投资评级两个方面对我国经济预测者的真伪羊群行为进行了辨析。分析结果表明,我国宏观经济预测中的羊群行为很可能是真羊群行为,而在股票投资评级中出现的羊群行为很可能是伪羊群行为。
作者 康健
出处 《财经问题研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2011年第7期19-25,共7页 Research On Financial and Economic Issues
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参考文献20

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共引文献69

同被引文献21

  • 1陈健,游玮,田金信.应用神经网络进行经济预测方法的改进[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2006,38(6):897-898. 被引量:11
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