各种因素对现在点射击方式反舰导弹捕捉概率的影响分析

Influence Analysis of Various Factors to Acquiring Probability of Anti-ship Missile with Shooting at Target's Immediate Position

反舰导弹采用现在点射击方式,计算射击诸元时,不测定目标运动要素、不计算导弹自控飞行时间内目标的运动及瞄准目标的现在位置射击,导致影响捕捉概率的误差因素增多,传统计算模型不能全面反映出误差对捕捉概率的影响。考虑各种影响因素且把平台定位误差、目标机动范围、目标指示误差作为圆分布来处理,逐步建立起不同误差条件下现在点射击方式反舰导弹的捕捉概率计算模型。结果显示,影响现在点射击方式反舰导弹捕捉概率的主要因素是发射距离和搜索范围,各种误差对捕捉概率有不可忽视的影响,当目标指示误差达到5 km或平台定位误差达到3 km时,捕捉概率很难达到0.99.

Anti-ship missile with shooting at target＇s immediate position only shoots at target＇s immediate position without considering target＇s maneuver and measuring target＇s states during the programmed flight period,which increases the factors of influencing the acquiring probability.The traditional computing models can not reflect the influence of various factors on the acquiring probability roundly.Therefore,the computing models for the acquiring probability of anti-ship missile with shooting at target＇s immediate position is constructed by considering various factors gradually and regarding the platform position error,target＇s maneuvering limit and target＇s position indication error as circular distribution.Simulation results show that the main factors influencing the acquiring probability of the anti-ship missile with shooting at target＇s immediate position are the attack distance and azimuth coverage;various errors also have not to be neglected influences on the acquiring probability;and acquiring probability is hard to reach 0.99 when the target＇s position indication error is 5km or the platform position error is 3km.