基于可信性理论的输电网规划方法

Transmission Network Expansion Planning Based on Credibility Theory

输电网规划中存在着大量的随机性和模糊性的不确定性因素,传统方法将其分开考虑,作为单重不确定问题进行建模和求解;可信性理论是数学基础领域最近完成的数学分支,提供了随机性和模糊性综合评估的严格数学基础;运用可信性理论建立了双重不确定性的输电网规划模型,模拟了新增发电机节点出力、新增节点负荷变化值和新增线路造价的不确定性因素,结合随机模糊模拟技术和改进量子遗传算法对模型进行了求解,最后用一个18节点系统算例验证了所提模型和方法的有效性。

In the electricity market,the transmission expansion planning faces influences of many uncertainties,which have the characteristic of random and fuzzy.In the past work,due to the limit in mathematical theory,the model developed could not simultaneously consider these two-fold uncertainties.Based on credibility theory accomplished recently,a new model with random fuzzy programming is proposed in this paper for transmission network expansion planning.The random fuzzy variable is adopted to describe the uncertain factors of newly-added generator bus output,the load of the newly-added bus,and the newly-added line investment.The random fuzzy simulation and improved quantum genetic algorithm are used to solve this model,and the model is proved effective through a 18-bus systems.