鄱阳湖生态经济区粮食产量的影响因素分析

The Impact Factors Analysis of Grain Output in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone

鄱阳湖生态经济区是中国南方粮食生产的重要区域。为推进鄱阳湖生态经济区战略,保障粮食生产,加快发展现代农业,利用鄱阳湖生态经济区域内25个县市粮食产量的相关数据进行相关分析、主成分分析和通径分析,探讨影响鄱阳湖生态经济区粮食产量的主要影响因素。研究结果表明,粮食作物播种面积的影响最大,其次是有效灌溉面积和化肥使用量(折纯量)。鄱阳湖生态经济区的粮食生产在农业科技投入上仍需加强,同时要处理好粮食生产与保护生态环境之间的关系,大力发展可持续的新型生态农业。

Poyang Lake ecological economic zone is a major grain production district in south China. Using the data of the grain production in 25 counties and cities of Poyang Lake ecological economic zone, the author did correlation analysis, principal component analysis and path analysis to explore the major factors of Poyang Lake ecological economic zone. The author demonstrated that the most important factor was grain production area and the second factor was the effective irrigation area and fertilizer usage amount （net volume）. The author could draw conclusions that agricultural science and technology inputs needed to be strengthened, properly balanced the relationship between grain production and protecting the ecological environment, and developed new sustainable development of ecological agriculture in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone.