农村经济发展状况和生活环境对流动决策的影响

Research on the Impact of Rural Economic and Social Development upon Rural Labor’s Migration Decision

中央近年连续颁布一号文件,增加了对农村基础设施建设投入,加大了对农村经济发展的支持力度,另一方面沿海地区屡次出现了"民工荒",这种劳动力回流现象是农村对劳动力流动决策的拉力增强了吗?笔者运用Tobit模型和调查数据,定量分析了上述问题。结果发现:农村经济发展状况整体上对农村劳动力流动产生显著的负向作用;农村基础设施对农村劳动力流动也产生负向影响。由于中国城乡二元结构长期作用下,即便在惠农、强农的政策体系和促进城乡经济社会一体化发展的制度框架已初步建立,农村经济和生活环境的改善,并不能从根本上阻挡农村劳动力向城市流动的趋势。建议政府切实贯彻"一号文件",以社会主义新农村建设为契机,将有限的资源重点投入到既能促进农民外出打工又能增加劳动力在本地转移的公共事业和基础设施建设上。

The central government of China issued No. 1 document continuously since the year of 2006, strengthened rural infrastructure and support on rural economy development. On the other hand, the state of shortage of migrant workers in coastal area happened frequently. Did this phenomenon proof that pull factors in rural areas are strengthened？ The article adopted Tobit model and investigation data to make an econometric analysis. The research showed rural economic development situation and rural infrastructure played a negative role in rural labor migration decision making. Under the circumstance of long-term urban-rural dual structure, improved rural economic development and living condition couldn’t obstruct the trend of rural labor migrating to township, even though the policy system of strengthening agriculture and benefiting farmers has been set up and county economy and township enterprises developed rapidly. The article suggested resolute implementation of No.1 document and to take the construction of socialist new countryside as a breakthrough to invest resource in public utilities and infrastructure so as to encourage rural labor to go out to work and transform in countryside.