基于SP和RP融合数据的小汽车通勤出行频率选择模型

Car Commuting Frequency Choice Model Based on SP and RP Fusion Data

基于小汽车通勤出行特性和成本分析,采用意愿调查法对小汽车出行者的社会经济属性、通勤特性和不同燃油价格下的出行意向进行调查,定量分析停车位供应状况、停车费、燃油价格等因素对小汽车使用者通勤出行频率的影响,以获取高燃油价格下小汽车通勤行为随燃油价格(出行成本)变化的规律。基于多项选择模型,分别建立了RP模型、SP模型和基于RP、SP数据融合的小汽车通勤出行频率选择模型。结果表明:融合数据模型的参数检验较显著。小汽车周通勤出行频率选择概率对燃油价格的弹性均小于1.0,缺乏弹性。小汽车通勤出行中低出行频率的燃油价格弹性明显高于高出行频率的燃油价格弹性,该群体的小汽车出行需求压缩空间较大。

The socio-economic characteristics,commuter trip characteristics and potential trip mode choices of vehicle travelers in different fuel prices were investigated by survey questionnaire based on the analysis of trip characteristics and travel cost of commuter cars.The effect of influence factors such as parking availability situation,parking fee and fuel fee on commuter frequency were quantitatively analyzed to obtain the regularity of the behavior of commuter car varying with fuel price（travel cost）.The RP model,the SP model,and the car commuting frequency choice model based on RP and SP data fusion model were established respectively based on multinomial logit model.The results show that（1） the parametric test veracity of the SP and RP data fusion model is satisfied;（2） the elasticity of the choice probability of car commuting frequency to fuel price is less than l.0 and it is scare of elasticity;（3） the fuel price elasticity of the lower commuting frequency is higher than that of the higher commuting frequency,which indicates some traffic demand management measures can be used to reduce the elasticity of demand.