转弯航路碰撞风险模型

Collision risk model of turning air-route

引入时间变量和时间间隔变量,分析了飞机之间任意时刻的标称间隔和碰撞风险,建立了基于时间间隔分布、飞机流率、机型比例与转弯角的碰撞风险模型,计算了转弯航路的碰撞风险,分析了不同参数对碰撞风险的影响。分析结果表明:碰撞风险是随着航段起始点到转弯点的距离与飞机流率的增大而逐渐增大,随着飞机到达转弯点的最小时间间隔的增大而逐渐减小。可见,此模型简单可靠。

Time variable and time interval variable were introduced,and nominal separation and collision risk at any time were analyzed.Time interval distribution,flow rate,the proportion of aircraft types and turning angle were determined by using two flight segments at the turning point,and a collision risk model was proposed.With the model,the collision risk of turning air-route was calculated,and the influences of different parameters on the collision risk were analyzed.Analysis result shows that the larger the distance from the initial point of flight segment to the turning point and aircraft rate are,the larger collision risk is.But the larger the minimum time interval at the turning point is,the smaller the collision risk is.It can be seen that the proposed model is reliable and simple.3 tabs,3 figs,15 refs.