省域人口抚养比的空间计量实证分析

Spatial econometric analysis of provincial dependency ratio of population

人口抚养比是衡量人口年龄结构的核心指标之一.文章基于2008年中国省域统计数据,测算Moran’sI空间自相关系数,建立空间计量模型.结果表明,人口抚养比在中国西南、东北地区呈现较强的空间集聚效应;计划生育政策和经济发展的不均衡是造成人口抚养比省际差异的主要原因.

DR（ dependency ratio of population） is one ot most cordial indicators measuring the age structure. Based on provincial data of 2008, this paper analyzes the specific spatial pattern of DR with the help of spatial econometrics models and Moran＇ s I indicator. According to the empirical studies, there are significant clustering effects within the south-western and north-eastern regions of China. Moreover, the one-child policy and non-paralleled economic growth contribute mainly to spatial difference of DR.