内河水域失控船舶撞击取水工程概率模型的研究

The Probability Model of Disabled Ships'Impact on Intake Waters in Inland Waters

本文通过对船舶失控漂移模型的运用,建立了内河水域失控船舶撞击取水工程的概率模型,并提出了一种可通过编程自动实现计算危险失控区域的方法,以期望对于内河航行船舶的船位控制,为取水工程的选址提供参考。

Through using the drift model of disabled ships,the author established the model of calculating the probability of disabled ships impact intake waters in inland waters,and proposes a method which can automatically calculate the dangerous area by programing,looking forward to providing a reference to the control of the ship＇s position in inland waters and the choice of the location of intake waters.