金融危机对中国70城市房价影响的关联聚集效应

Correlative Cluster Effect of Financial Crisis's Impact on the Housing Price Index of 70 Chinese Cities

为了考察金融危机影响下中国70个大中城市房价的波动特征及关联变化,提出采用具有准确拓扑序列的亚超度量空间方法。通过对2005年7月至2009年7月中国70个大中城市房屋销售价格指数样本的月数据进行金融危机前后对比实证,结果发现:金融危机爆发后,中国70个大中城市房价间聚集效应更加明显;房价间距离明显缩短,表明70城市房价波动的关联性提高;聚集的中心节点由二三线城市逐渐变为一线城市,使得一线城市的影响力大幅增强。虽然全球金融危机爆发,使得中国70个大中城市房价大幅降低,但其整体上仍然是相对稳定的。建议继续加大对影响力逐渐增强的一线城市房价的关注力度,建立公平合理的市场制度,防止由于"涟漪效应"出现各城市房价轮涨现象,从而构建"居者有其屋"的和谐社会。

In this paper a subdominant ultra-metric space with exactly defined topology sequence is applied to study the fluctuations and correlation of real estate prices of 70 cities under the impact of Financial Crisis.A comparative analysis of the monthly data from sample Housing Sales Price Index from July 2005 to July 2009 shows that the cluster effect in the real estate prices of the 70 cities is more significant after outbreak of the global financial crisis.Over time,the housing price span among different cities tends narrower,indicating that real estate price fluctuations among different cities are becoming more correlative.The central nodes in China are shifting from tier 2 and 3 cities to tier 1 cities.The influence of tier 1 cities is stronger.Although the global financial crisis led to much lower housing prices of the 70 cities,the whole housing market remains relatively stable.It is suggested to pay more attention to the housing prices of tier 1 cities in an effort to construct a harmonious society where every household has a house to live in.