中国大豆进口的长期均衡和短期调整分析

Long-run Equilibrium and Short-run Adjustment of Soybean Import in China

中国的大豆在生产成本和市场价格上不具备优势。国内大豆生产不能满足国内榨油业和饲养业的迅速发展对大豆的需求,中国已由传统的大豆出口国转变为净进口国,大豆进口量快速增长。国内前期大豆的供给量与需求量之差、世界大豆总产量以及国际和中国大豆价格等与中国大豆进口量之间存在长期均衡关系。国际大豆产量、国内大豆产量、国际和国内大豆价格以及进口食用植物油量的年度变化量,是引致中国大豆进口短期波动的主要因素。当大豆进口量短期波动偏离长期均衡时,每年将以0.78的调整力度将非均衡状态拉回到均衡状态。

China doesn′t have advantages in production cost and price of soybean. Domestic soybean production doesn′t meet the demand of oil-extracting industry and breeding industry. China has changed from net exporter to net importer of soybean, and the import of soybean are increasing rapidly. The differences between demand and supply of soybean in prior period, world soybean production, domestic and world soybean price and soybean import have long-run equilibrium. Variables including domestic and world production, domestic and world price, production of vegetable oil cause short-run import fluctuation. If short-run import deviates from long-run equilibrium, it will be driven back in 0.78 adjustment rate annually.