基于出行链方式的私人小汽车出行属性分析方法研究

Study on the Travel Attributes of Private Cars on the Basis of Home-Based Trip Chains

在经济飞速增长,私人小汽车保有量迅速增加的背景下,本文以私人小汽车使用者为研究对象,旨在探索有效的出行行为分析方法,挖掘私人小汽车出行属性规律,为制定有效的私人小汽车管理措施,缓解城市交通拥挤提供重要的参考依据.本文首先从潜在内部属性和行为属性的角度对私人小汽车的出行属性进行分析;其次,引入基于家出行链分析方法,将基于家出行链与出行方式选择联合分析,建立了双层NestedLogit模型,并对变量的显著性和敏感性进行了分析;最后,通过对模型统计特性和精度进行验证,检验结果表明,该模型精度较高,结果理想.

Under the background of economic soaring and the number of private cars increasing quickly,this study takes private car users as research object,in order to explore effective analysis method of travel behavior and find out the attributes of travel behavior of private cars,which provide us very important reference for making effective private cars management policies,to solve the traffic congest problem.This study firstly analyzes the attributes of travel behavior of private cars from the viewpoints of latent immanency and travel behavior.Secondly,the method of home-based trip chain analysis is introduced.A Bi-Level Nested Logit model is developed based on the home-based trip-chain analysis.The significance and sensitivity of variables are analyzed.Finally,by means of verifying the statistic characteristics and estimation accuracy of the model,it is proved that the proposed model has comparatively higher estimation accuracy.