四川省能源消费碳排放趋势及影响因素研究

Research on Carbon Emissions Trend Caused by Energy Consumption and Its Influencing Factors of Sichuan Province

基于四川省2000～2009年能源消费资料，对全省二氧化碳排放总量、人均二氧化碳排放量、单位GDP二氧化碳排放量三项碳排放指标进行了测算。并采用Laspeyres完全分解方法对三项碳排放指标进行了因素分解，分析测算了各影响因素对分解目标的贡献值和贡献率。研究结果表明，经济因素对二氧化碳排放总量、人均GDP二氧化碳排放量变化起主导作用．能源强度对单位GDP二氧化碳排放量的变化贡献最大。

Based on the energy consumption data of Sichuan Province from 2000 to 2009, the total carbon dioxide emissions, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and carbon emissions unit GDP are calculated. Meanwhile, the factors of three carbon emissions indicators above-mentioned are decomposed by using Laspeyres complete decomposition method. At the same time, contribution to the value and contribution rate of each influencing factor to target decomposition are analyzed. The results show that economic factors plays a leading role on the change of the total carbon dioxide emissions and carbon dioxide emissions unit GDP. and energy intensity makes the largest contribution to the change of carbon dioxide emissions unit GDP.