无气象观测地区的电线覆冰厚度推算

The method of calculating the ice thickness on wire in the areas without meteorological observation

利用湖北省1962—2008气象数据与电线积冰数据,建立了各种气象要素与电线覆冰厚度的回归模型,该回归模型充分考虑了形成电线覆冰需具备相应的气候条件。通过动力降尺度计算了灾情发生地的气象数据,结合已建立的回归模型,推算出电线覆冰厚度。与实测电线覆冰厚度相比,推算准确率在62.8%～75.9%。表明依据建立的回归方程并结合动力降尺度的方法,在无气象台站观测的地区推算电线覆冰厚度是可行的。从全省覆冰极值厚度分布图上看出,江汉平原及以北区域覆冰厚度较大,而湖北东西部较小。

Using meteorological data and ice cable data during 1962 and 2008 in Hubei Province,the regression model between various meteorological elements and wire ice thickness was established,in which corresponding weather conditions required for the formation of ice on the wires were taken into account.Calculated by dynamical downscaling of meteorological data in disaster areas,combined with the established regression model,the thickness of wire ice was calculated.The accuracy rate is about 62.8-75.9% compared with the measured thickness of ice-coated wire.It means that calculating the thickness of wire ice by the combination of the regression equations and dynamical downscaling methods is feasible in the areas without of meteorological observation stations.The maximum ice thickness distribution shows that the thickness in Jianghan plain and its north is high,while it is low in the the eastern and western parts of Hubei.