国际资本流动对人民币汇率内外价值的影响研究

A Study of the Internal and External Value of Renminbi Exchange Rate on the Basis of International Capital Flow

近年来,伴随着国际资本大量流入我国境内,我国外汇储备大幅度增加。一方面,国际资本大量流入在外汇市场给人民币带来升值的压力;另一方面,央行被动购入外汇,造成外汇占款增多。外汇占款日趋成为我国基础货币供应主渠道,货币供应量被动增加,超额货币供应又推动物价和资产价格上涨,人民币内外价值日趋出现背离趋势。本文认为,现行汇率制度下国际资本流入使基础货币被动放大,我国货币政策失去独立性,进行人民币汇率形成机制的改革是必经之路。

Recently,a large amount of international capital flows into China,which exerts great influence on China's economy.On the one hand,given China's existing foreign exchange management system,it will result in the increase of the supply of foreign currency on the foreign exchange market,and brings a revaluating pressure to RMB;on the other hand,to avoid the negative effect brought by the revaluation of RMB,China's Central Bank frequently buys foreign currency at foreign exchange market,causing the increase of funds outstanding for foreign exchange and money supply.This excess money supply has resulted in the pressure of inflation and the increase of asset prices in turn.The internal and external value of RMB deviates from each other.This paper concludes that the current foreign exchange system makes the basic currency enlarge passively,and loosening the control and restructuring the foreign exchange system are basic ways to address the current problem.