地方财政支出对中国省际人口迁移影响的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Influence of Local Fiscal Expenditure on Inter-provincial Migration

以第四次人口普查和2005年1%人口抽样调查中我国省际人口迁移的数据为样本,采用个体固定效应模型,对地方财政支出对人口迁移的影响进行检验。结果表明,地方财政支出差异对我国省际人口迁移的作用是显著的,当迁入地的财政支出增加时迁入人数也会增加,中部省份的财政支出对人口迁入的作用要大于东、西部地区;另外,相对于地方政府基本建设支出,文教、卫生和社会保障支出差异对人口迁移的影响更大。

This text used Gravity Model based on inter-provincial panel data to study the influence of local fiscal expenditure on population migration in China.The results demonstrates the influence of local fiscal expenditure on migraton is significant,the gravity of fiscal expenditure in a new place is evident,and when the place is central provinces,it has strongest gravity.Moreover,compared with the capital expenditure of local fiscal expenditure,that of culture,education,health and social security has more effective on population migration.