税源建设与产业结构调整——源自湖南省统计数据的实证研究

Construction of Tax Source and Industrial Restructuring——Empirical Research Based on Statistical Data in Hunan Province

税收作为国家制度性工具,在长期时间序列分析中,税率变化幅度较小,征管作用趋于弱化,仅有经济与税收呈现长期稳定的关系。选取湖南省税收增长率和第二、三产业中的六大主要行业进行多元线性回归分析,实证结果显示:第二产业与税收收入相关度较高,贡献率较大;传统服务业与税收收入相关度较低,贡献率较小;房地产行业对税收收入贡献为负数。

Tax is a tool of national system.From the long-term time series analysis,tax rate changes in a narrow range and the function of administration is becoming weakening,while only economy and tax revenue still keep stable for a long time.The multivariate linear regression analysis,based on the data of tax growth rate and six major sections in the second and tertiary industries in Hunan Province,shows that： the second industry is related to the tax revenue to a great degree and contributes a lot to the tax revenue;while traditional service industry is related to the tax revenue to a limited extent and contributes a little;the real estate industry contributes nothing to the tax revenue.