气候变暖对甘肃省不同气候类型区主要作物需水量的影响

Impact of warming climate on crop water requirement in Gansu Province

作物需水量是农田水分循环系统中最重要的因素之一。在未来温度上升1～4℃的情景下,研究了气候变暖对我国甘肃省不同气候类型区主要作物需水量的影响。结果表明,气候变暖对不同作物需水量的影响程度不同。其中对冬小麦需水量的影响最大,对玉米和春小麦次之。当生长期内温度上升1～4℃时,冬小麦需水量将增加3.05%～12.90%,相当于13.2～81.2 mm;玉米需水量将增加2.49%～10.80%,相当于9.9～60.6 mm;春小麦需水量将增加2.74%～11.69%,相当于6.7～40.0 mm。气候变暖对作物需水量的影响存在一定地域性差异。对干旱区的作物需水量影响最大,半干旱区次之,其次是半湿润区,对湿润区影响不大。根据甘肃省目前的种植结构,据此估算,当温度上升1～4℃时,将使甘肃省冬小麦的灌溉需水量增加12.43×108 m3、13.02×108 m3、13.74×108 m3和14.65×108 m3,玉米的灌溉需水量增加7.94×108 m3、8.32×108 m3、8.78×108 m3和9.30×108 m3,春小麦的灌溉需水量增加4.97×108 m3、5.16×108 m3、5.42×108 m3和5.76×108 m3。

Global warming is an increasingly worrisome environmental and climatic phenomenon.Global average temperature increased by 0.60～0.70 ？C over the last centuray,with an average temperature rise of 0.80～1.50 ？C in China.Northwest China is one of the most sensitive areas to climate change.Temperature（a critical factor of global warming） is often used in an integrated method to calculate crop water demand.In other words,temperature afftects climate change,which in turn affects crop water needs.Crop water requirements in Northwest China is therefore critical in farm water cycle.It is also an important hydraulic and water-saving parameter in agricultural research,planning and design.This study addressed issues such as： the effect of climate change on agricultural water demand in different regions,and current lack of systematic and quantitative data to support crop water requirement research in the face of global warming.This study analyzed the effects of warming climate on crop water requirement in Gansu Province under different temperature scenarios（future temperature increases of 1～4 ？C）.The results showed that the effects of warming climate on crop water requirement were different for different crops.Warming climate greatly afftected water requirement of winter wheat,followed by spring wheat and maize.When future temperatures rose by 1～4 ？C,water requirement of winter wheat increased by 3.05%～12.90%,which was the equivalent of 13.2～81.2 mm.That of maize increased by 2.49%～10.80%,the equivalent of 9.9～60.6 mm.Then spring wheat water requirement increased by 2.74%～11.69%,the equivalent of 6.7～40.0 mm.Regional differences were noted in the impact of warming climate on crop water requirement.The impact of warming climate on crop water requirement was highest for arid regions,followed by semi-arid regions,and then semi-humid regions.The least effect was for humid regions.When future temperatures rose by 1～4 ？C,the temperature scenario caused additional irrigation water requirement of 1 243,1 302,1 374 and 1 465 million m3 for winter wheat;794,832,878 and 930 million m3 for maize;and 497,516,542 and 576 million m3 for spring wheat,respectively.Warming climate worsened water shortage problems in the study area.