江西省可持续发展动态分析

Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development in Jiangxi Province

基于生态足迹理论,提出了生态压力指数、生态占用指数和生态经济协调指数3个概念,并构建了可持续发展评价模型。利用该模型对江西省1990～2007年的生态安全、消费水平、生态与经济协调发展状况进行定量研究,结果表明:江西省的生态压力指数从1990年的1.56增高到2007年的1.96,17年间生态压力指数提高25.64%,生态环境始终处于很不安全状态(2级);生态占用指数从1990年的0.79逐年提高到2007年的0.88,始终属于较贫穷状态(2级);生态经济协调指数从1990年的0.50逐年降低到2007年的0.45,始终处于很差等级(1级);可持续发展指数从1990年的0.19逐渐降低到2007年的0.13,始终处于很差等级(1级)。

Appraisal of sustainable regional development has attracted much attention in recent years.Conventional appraisal of sustainable development is routinely based on representative overall index system.The principal weakness of this approach is the large number of appraisal factors.The index weight also needs artificial evaluation and subjective factors may drastically affect the overall results.Furthermore,the evaluation indicators and division rank standard are often too difficult to unify.The overall results are therefore not often commensurate to the individual components in space and time.Recently,an ecology trail theory is proposed for appraising sustainable regional development.However,this method merely relies on ecological deficits（which are insufficiently available） in judging the sustainability of development conditions.Using ecological footprint theory,this paper advanced a sustain-able development evaluation model that was designed on ecological tension（ETI）,occupancy（EOI） and economic coordination（EECI） indices.ETI is the ratio of per-capita regional ecological footprint of renewable resource to ecological carrying capacity.This represents the degree of tension that can safely be absorbed by a regional ecological environment.EOI is the ratio of a per-capita regional ecological footprint to per capita global ecological footprint.It reflects the degrees of both national/regional socio-economic development and per-capita consumption.EECI is the ratio of EOI to ETI.It depicts the level of coordination between regional eco-logical environment and regional socio-economic development.The sum of ETI,EOI and EECI is a standardized measure of sus-tainable development index of a region.This paper dynamically evaluated ecological safety,people＇s consumption level,and eco-logical/economic development in Jiangxi Province for the period 1990～2007.The results showed an enhancement in ETI from 1.56 in 1990 to 1.96 in 2007.About 25.64% of this enhancement occurred during the period of research.This implied that the ecology was in an unsafe state（2 grade）.The increase in EOI from 0.79 in 1990 to 0.88 in 2007 also implied a very poor state of occupancy（2 grade）.The decrease in EECI from 0.50 in 1990 to 0.45 in 2007 suggested a bad state of coordination（1 grade）.Sustainable devel-opment index（SDI） decreased from 0.19 in 1990 to 0.13 in 2007,suggesting a bad state ecological sustainability（1 grade）.